- The Democrats Might Retain the Senate After All - September 30, 2012
- Election Update (One More Time) - September 2, 2012
- Election Update - June 16, 2012
- Election (Not Weekend) Update - March 6, 2012
- Will President Obama Be Reelected? - November 5, 2011
What is perhaps more interesting is whether the Democrats will retain control of the Senate. For most of this year, I've argued that they wouldn't, but the tide began to change when Maine's Republican Senator, Olympia Snow, chose not to run, and Missouri's Republican nominee for the Senate, Todd Akin, remarked that some forms of rape were legitimate ("What did Rep. Akin mean by ‘legitimate rape’?") and then refused to drop out of the race when it became clear that he had become a liability. Now, it appears that the Democrats have a genuine chance at holding on to the Senate, a scenario that many people didn't believe possible just a year ago.
P.S. While I rely heavily on prediction markets for making my own predictions, the first place I look is the Dow Jones Industrial Average. I've developed a working "theory," which I have yet to establish empirically, that if the Dow crosses a certain psychological threshold, a President will be reelected. In this election year, I believe that threshold is 13,000. That it will probably be above 13,000 when people on election day (but not by much) is one of the reasons that I think President Obama will win (but not by much).