A few months ago I wrote that if the economy didn't improve, come January 2013 Mitt Romney would be sitting in the White House and Republicans would control the House and Senate ("
Will President Obama Be Reelected?"). Since then, the economy has improved, and President Obama's prospects for reelection are much better than they were six months ago. In fact, as long as the European debt crisis or rising oil prices don't cause the U.S. economy to go into a tail-spin (which is, of course, a very real possibility), President Obama should serve another four years as President (assuming he doesn't do anything really stupid between now and November).
However, the Democrats are still in danger of losing control of the Senate, primarily because while 21 Democrats are up for reelection, only 10 Republicans are. The fact that Republican Olympia Snowe has decided not to seek reelection may help the Democrats, but it probably isn't enough. Thus, looking forward to year from now, currently it appears the while a Democrat will be sitting in the Oval Office, Republicans will be controlling the House and Senate.
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