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Saturday, January 16, 2016

Does Jeb! Still have a Chance?

Donald Trump's continued popularity has confounded political observers, including yours truly. Never in my wildest dreams did I think Trump would still be at the top of the pack this late in the game. Although his repeated half-truths and offensive statements haven't hurt him in the polls. Instead, they've helped. I'm not sure what that says about the American public. I just hope its only a phase we're going through.

Concomitant with Trump's rise has been the fall of Jeb Bush, the "preseason" favorite to win the nomination. Like others I'm about ready to write Jeb! off, but part of me can't help but wonder if he still has a chance. My reason for wondering is because he continues to receive endorsements - just this week he he was endorsed by Lindsay Graham from South Carolina ("Lindsey Graham Endorses Jeb Bush") - and currently leads FiveThirtyEight's "Endorsement Primary" (Note: This early in an election, endorsements are generally a better predictor of who wins the nomination than polls). Nevertheless, I still think Bush is a long shot, but I don't think he completely out of the game.

Of course, Jeb! isn't the only candidate picking up endorsements. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have been picking up some too. Even John Kasich has. One candidate hasn't, though: Donald Trump. And that should help spell his doom in the long run. However, maybe things really are different this time around. Stay tuned. It should be interesting.

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