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Friday, March 29, 2013

Will a Girl Finally Win American Idol?

It's been a while since a female won American Idol (Jordin Sparks in 2007 was the last), probably because over time the show's fan base has become dominated by young girls who are more likely to vote for good looking guys, regardless of whether they can sing or not (Phillip Phillips being the latest example). However, this year things are looking up for the girls. Guys keep getting voted off, and in the latest prediction markets ("PredictWise"), of the top five front-runners, four are women:

Name
Probability
Angie Miller
14.9%
Candice Glover
14.5%
Kree Harrison
13.9%
Janelle Arthur
  6.3%
Curtis Finch
  3.3%

Of course, it's still early so things can change, and none of the female candidates are overwhelming favorites (e.g., currently Angie Miller leads all of the contestants, but there's still only a 14.9% chance that she will win). That said, the probability that one of the top four female candidates will win is close to 50%, which means there's hope that things will be a bit different this year. We will see what we will see.

P.S.: As of March 30th, the probabilities have shifted somewhat. The women still dominate, but Candice Glover is now the front runner:

Name
Probability
Candice Glover
25.6 %
Kree Harrison
24.5 %
Angie Miller
22.6 %
Janelle Arthur
16.6 %
Amber Holcomb
4.7 %
Burnell Taylor
2.3 %
Lazaro Arbos
1.5 %

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